The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2.
Pekar JE., Lytras S., Ghafari M., Magee AF., Parker E., Wang Y., Ji X., Havens JL., Katzourakis A., Vasylyeva TI., Suchard MA., Hughes AC., Hughes J., Rambaut A., Robertson DL., Dellicour S., Worobey M., Wertheim JO., Lemey P.
The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 led to increased sampling of sarbecoviruses circulating in horseshoe bats. Employing phylogenetic inference while accounting for recombination of bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed less than a decade prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses show bat sarbecoviruses traveled at rates approximating their horseshoe bat hosts and circulated in Asia for millennia. We find that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are unlikely to have reached their respective sites of emergence via dispersal in the bat reservoir alone, supporting interactions with intermediate hosts through wildlife trade playing a role in zoonotic spillover. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic regions extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.