James Hay

I am a research fellow at the Nuffield Department of Medicine funded through a Wellcome Trust Early Career Award working in the Pathogen Dynamics Group. My expertise is in infectious disease modelling, with a specific interest in using novel data types to understand and track the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly influenza and SARS-CoV-2. My publications are listed here.

How can we improve the accuracy and robustness of infectious disease surveillance systems and understand where and when populations are most at risk? My research aims to address this question using statistical and mathematical models applied to quantitative diagnostic data from a variety of data streams. For example, through estimating infection incidence using the time-varying distribution of cycle threshold values from routine RT-qPCR hospital testing, or imputing infection histories from serological survey data. I typically use Bayesian multi-level models to link data and models across scales, from within-host models of viral kinetics and immune responses to agent-based models of disease spread. My fellowship involves collaboration with the ONS Covid Infection Survey and REACT study teams, as well as academic partners in Oxford and elsewhere.

I completed my PhD at Imperial College in 2019 and spent three years as a postdoc at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. Before that, my undergraduate degree was in Natural Sciences (Zoology) at the University of Cambridge, followed by an MSc in Computing Science at Imperial College. Please get in touch to chat about infection histories, inference using serological data, or viral load dynamics.