Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

I lead the Mathematical Modelling for Policy Support group, spread across PSI and UKHSA, and comprising  modellers and data-scientists at UKHSA and DPhil students at University of Oxford. My group utilises mathematical and statistical modelling to respond to current and emerging questions in infectious disease epidemiology and public health. Pre COVID-19, my research was focused on evaluating different intervention strategies for infectious diseases, including seasonal and pandemic influenza, RSV and HIV.

Over the COVID-19 pandemic, I led the ensemble modelling that was responsible for the generation of the short-term reproduction number R and growth rate r nowcasts and the medium-term projections (MTPs) of the COVID-19 trajectories, as a collaboration between the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group for Modelling Operational (SPI-M-O) and the UKHSA. Additionally, I modelled the transmission of different SARS-CoV-2 variants using agent-based models (ABMs), advising policy decision bodies in the UK at different decision junctures over the pandemic. Notably, my modelling results on when and how to reopen schools after the national lockdowns, and my roadmap modelling projections in 2021 were used by the SPI-M-O, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), NHS and UKHSA.

Currently, my research is focused around utilising ABMs across different diseases and developing complementary approaches to model infectious disease transmission and control. This involves exploring different methods such as machine-learning algorithms, to improve calibration of ABMs, and developing modular frameworks to make them more user friendly. I continue to work closely with researchers within the UK Health Security Agency to answer emerging public health questions. These include modelling Mpox and Avian influenza transmission and evaluating different immunisation strategies to reduce pneumococcal disease burden and explore different HPV screening strategies. 

I am also a Fellow of The Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, of The Royal Statistical Society and of The Royal Society for Public Health. I take a keen interest in promoting mathematics and statistics, regularly giving talks at schools across the UK.